Journalists have not been allowed anywhere near the assault and the Ukrainians have been very good at concealing their intentions. It is almost impossible to tell how the battle is actually going at the front. It is a scenario that many top officials in Kyiv believe is the most likely way to end the war. In November 1942, Nazi Germany’s sixth army was on the verge of victory in Stalingrad after months of gruelling urban warfare.Ī sudden Soviet counter-offensive on the flanks left the Germans themselves surrounded and led to a devastating defeat from which the Nazis never recovered.Ī similar encirclement of the Russians at Bakhmut might just provide the kind of shock to cause chaos in Moscow. There are tantalising historic precedents for such a reversal. This week’s attacks on the Russian north and south flanks seem to have been aimed initially at pushing the troops back from the critical supply roads.īut if they go further they could develop into a pincer movement of their own – potentially leading to an encirclement of thousands of Russians committed to the assault on the city. But a severe battlefield shock would cause political reverberations in Moscow. The point is not to kill every Russian in Ukraine, or even to retake every inch of land. The Ukrainians will exploit that ambiguity to the full, waiting to judge the Russian response in Bakhmut before deciding where to commit more reserves for a breakthrough. ![]() Russia’s generals are all too aware of these options, but until the Ukrainians make a firm commitment one way or the other they cannot be sure where to concentrate their defence. ![]() ![]() The third, though risky, would take advantage of weak Russian defences along the river. ![]() The second would sever the “land bridge” between mainland Russia and Crimea, turning the prized peninsula into a trap. The first would cut a critical Russian supply line for forces in Donbas. They have at least three other possible axes for the grand offensive: against Svatove in the north towards Melitopol in the south and across the Dnipro river near Kherson.
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